Carel,
for the most part I think the constant references to escaping the
draft to be apocryphal especially when there was no draft to run from.
In other areas and other times and especially in Prussia this holds
more truth as being drafted could have meant 20 years or so in the
army. Now THAT is something to run from. Oldenburg had a very small
army, a regiment or so, and most members were volunteers. All this
changed in more modern times when the Oldenburg military was basically
integrated under Prussian command.
Over the years of reading about all these draft evaders one has to
become a bit sceptical about the real reasons for emigration as you
infer. Perhaps the young men worried about the future 'possibility' of
having to serve in the army and took the high road before that ever
might happen regardless of the small chances of it actually happening.
Such worries later turned into a full fledged reason for why did you
leave the old country.
Fred